Brandon interviews Stephen O'Grady, principal analyst and co-founder of RedMonk, about his 2013 book *The New Kingmakers* and his recent follow-up, "Agents: The new, New Kingmakers." O'Grady explains that the original thesis was simple: developers had gone from an afterthought in technology purchasing to the group whose choices determined what got used, driven first by open source (the LAMP stack, Linux) and then by cloud services like S3 and EC2 that removed the need to ask for budget. The two discuss why Sun was disrupted from every direction while Oracle and Cisco endured, with O'Grady noting that databases are the stickiest, highest-risk asset in the stack. He recounts getting an early look at GitHub Copilot a year before ChatGPT, but says the late-2025 jump in model capability was a step change he did not foresee.
On software development, O'Grady expects a spectrum rather than a consensus on reviewing AI-written code: toy apps and disposable software may never be read by a human, while medical imaging, aviation, and defense will demand real oversight. He uses his construction background to describe the developer's shift from builder to architect, and warns that the "human in the loop" role is the weak end of the outcomes. Brandon and O'Grady examine why individual developers feel superhuman while organizations don't see the gains, with O'Grady pointing to downstream bottlenecks like the flood of PRs overwhelming open source maintainers. He cites Dr. James Bessen's bank teller research as a reminder that automation's effect on employment is hard to predict, and asks what happens if there is an order of magnitude more software in the world.
On vendors, O'Grady expects both human-facing and agent-only businesses to coexist, with the biggest growth in agents because they scale like cloud, while Brandon points to Cloudflare's rewrite of Wrangler as a model for exposing complete APIs. O'Grady cautions that giving agents the keys to the kingdom is harder than it sounds, since subtle violations (like pulling copyrighted headshots from MLB.com) are harder to foresee than deleting a database. They close with hot takes: O'Grady takes the under on a 10% chance of AI wiping out humanity, arguing the industry doesn't draw a bright enough line between digital and physical capability, and he remains skeptical of frontier model valuations and the circular investments behind them, especially as open-weight models close the gap.
SHOW: 1069
SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Enterprise AI Show #1069 Transcript
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Stephen O'Grady is the principal analyst and co-founder of RedMonk, a developer- and practitioner-focused industry analyst firm. He is the author of *The New Kingmakers* (2013), which argued that developers had become the most important decision-makers in technology, and writes the Tecosystems blog.
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